Debates Don’t Matter... Except When They Do. This One Might.

Most debates fade. But sometimes, the right one lands at the right moment.

Let’s face it – most federal debates are like bad reality TV. Everyone’s mugging for the camera, tossing half-rehearsed zingers, and dodging real answers like it’s a dodgeball tournament for consultants. By the next day, most people can’t remember who said what – unless somebody fell off the stage. Or into the fire. (I’m old enough to remember season two of Survivor.)

Campaigns, media, and even voters put a lot of emphasis on these productions. But when you look back at the big historical moments, there aren’t many examples where a debate truly changed the game. Maybe the poorly worded moderator question in 2021. Maybe Prentice’s poor showing against Notley in 2015. Or Jack Layton’s 2011 jab at Michael Ignatieff – “Most Canadians, if they don’t show up for work, they don’t get a promotion.” A line that landed because it built on an ad campaign and years of groundwork.

But if you want a real knock-out debate moment, most people say you have to go all the way back to 1988, when Brian Mulroney said, “You had an option, sir.”

Still, every now and then, debates cut through. Not because of the fireworks – but because the stakes finally come into focus.

This one might be one of those.

Because what’s not obvious in the national polling – but becoming clear to anyone watching closely – is that Mark Carney’s lead is real, and it’s solidifying. He sounds steady (at least in English). He looks ready. And a lot of people are eager to believe he’s the adult in the room.

These debates might finally be the moment people look under the hood.

Buried in his promise to balance the budget in three years is $43 billion in cuts. It’s not a theory – it’s math. He’s shown no interest in shutting down the tax havens or closing the tax loopholes he’s personally profited from – loopholes that made his millionaire and billionaire clients even richer. He’s already scrapped the capital gains increase. He’s refused to ask the wealthiest to pay even a little more.

That means his Liberal cuts will fall on the rest of us. Fewer nurses. Longer wait times. Less affordable housing. Services pulled out from under people just when they’re needed most – especially if Trump hits the economy like a freight train.

Carney won’t say that part out loud. But it’s there, just beneath the surface.

Pierre Poilievre isn’t hiding his cuts – he’s campaigning on them. His message is built around anger. He wants to tear things down, shrink what exists, and call that freedom. But freedom doesn’t mean much if you can’t afford your medication, or if your local ER is closed again.

His economic plan boils down to deep cuts, privatization, and a shrug. The slogans come easy. The solutions don’t.

And then there’s Jagmeet Singh.

No one’s going to pretend the NDP is leading in the national polls. But if people actually tuned in to what Singh and the NDP have done with just 25 MPs, they might be surprised – and maybe even persuaded.

It was Singh and his caucus who secured dental care for nearly nine million Canadians. Who pushed forward a national Pharmacare plan. Who delivered free birth control, free diabetes medication, GST relief, anti-scab legislation, and real help for renters.

None of it came from a press conference. None of it came from Liberal good intentions. It came from holding the balance of power – and choosing to use it for people instead of politics.

That’s the story Singh needs to tell tonight. Not with fireworks or bravado, but by reminding voters that progress is possible – even in a fractured Parliament. That you can vote for someone who puts people first, and actually backs it up with results.

And here’s the part I wish more people heard, especially this time of year when polling aggregators and seat projections start shouting over everything else: democracy isn’t a prediction market. And national numbers don’t win local ridings.

When I managed Jennifer French’s provincial campaign in Oshawa, every aggregator and seat model predicted her loss. They always do. The region of Durham is deep blue, and Oshawa shouldn’t go orange. But it does. Jennifer French bucks the trend. And she did again this year – with nearly 46% of the vote.

In riding after riding, many New Democrat MPPs who won have a similar story. They weren’t supposed to win. But they did – because people showed up for candidates they believed in, not because a map on a website told them to.

The same analysts who said the NDP might not hold party status were stunned when Marit Stiles held on to Official Opposition. Because people voted their values. They voted for neighbours who’d earned their trust.

Vote for who you believe in. Vote for who shows up in your community. That’s how real change happens – riding by riding, conversation by conversation. The rest of it – the big picture – starts there.

So, will these debates matter?

Not every debate is a turning point. But hopefully, these two will help Canadians see the contrast a little more clearly.

One leader is coming in promising cuts and trying not to talk about them. Another is campaigning on anger and making those same cuts sound like freedom. And one is coming in with a record – not of slogans, but of making things better for people who needed it.

Most debates fade. But sometimes, the right one lands at the right moment. This could be that one.

Let me know what you think. Will the debates matter?
If you’ve already watched them, how did they affect your decision to vote?